Seyran Ohanyan Warns to Be Cautious of Turkish-Azerbaijani Military Exercises

Azerbaijan and Turkey will conduct joint military exercises titled "Winter-2021" in Kars from February 1 to 12.

In an interview with Aysor.am, the former Minister of Defense of Armenia, Seyran Ohanyan, emphasized that we should analyze the events unfolding in our region within the context of geopolitical and regional developments.

"The main direction of regional developments is the expansion of the influence of major players and the emergence of new players in the South Caucasus, specifically within the framework of Turkey-Azerbaijan strategic cooperation. Such exercises took place in Azerbaijan, in several areas, including Nakhichevan, and thereafter we saw what kind of provocation was initiated against Artsakh and Armenia. It is clear that we all emphasize and the international community is also speaking about this: the war unleashed by Azerbaijan was conducted with the support of Turkey, international terrorists, and other actors in the Muslim world that backed them. Now, relatively, peace prevails because the war was halted after the declaration, but we all need to understand that under the backdrop of any such peace, our opponents have always sought to prepare for another provocation," said Ohanyan in the interview.

He stated that the next provocation towards Armenia bears a certain level of complexity because, in the case of provoking Armenia, our opponents will directly have to deal with the CSTO and also with the significant regional player—the Russian Federation's joint forces.

"The exercises will take place from February 1 to 12, right next to us—in the eastern part of Kars province, directly across from Gyumri, where the Russian 102nd military base is also located, and that direction is one of the main operational directions of our joint forces," noted Ohanyan.

According to the former Minister of Defense, Azerbaijan and Turkey are developing their military collaboration capabilities through these exercises, especially since they have stated they will test new weaponry.

"This means that the Turkish-Azerbaijani cooperation will continue to take military measures and one of their successful accomplishments is the unblocking of infrastructures and transport routes. Firstly, for whom? Primarily, it is the opening of the road network for Turkey towards Nakhichevan, through Armenia and Azerbaijan, to reach the Caspian Sea and for the prospective goals of 'Great Turan.' Although we say that the overall economic picture in the region will change, but the economic picture and the demographic situation will be changing in favor of the Turkish-Azerbaijani tandem; we need to note that. In other words, these exercises should be viewed in the context of expanding military, economic, demographic influence, and the capabilities for joint actions," he added.

Ohanyan highlighted that Turkey and Azerbaijan have always operated deceitfully, showing military force in one area while committing relevant provocations in another area, such as Artsakh or Syunik.

What should Armenia do?

"First and foremost, we need to solve our internal issues of unification and overcome this psychological state. The experience has shown that in times of danger we are united and try to withstand threats, but during this military action, the government did nothing to mobilize the nation or to achieve the full goal of military mobilization. This war showed that the principle passed down to us for centuries—that we are united in times of danger—was violated; this government failed to unite us," said Ohanyan, emphasizing the necessity to take swift measures to reorganize the Armenian army and to resolve issues related to armaments.

"We had a defensive line of 285 km, and now we have about 100 km left. In all other areas, we need to rapidly improve our engineering capabilities," the former minister noted, indicating that the Armenia-Turkey border should not be forgotten and attention must be focused on work along that border.

One of the most critical issues, according to Seyran Ohanyan, is the restoration and expansion of military, military-political, and military-technical cooperation with the Russian Federation because, as he pointed out, Russia is the only ally against the Turkish-Azerbaijani tandem in the region.

"We need to pay serious attention to the implementation of our international political and military-diplomatic issues; we need brave diplomats today, courageous authorities that expand relations and bold and serious negotiators who will enhance our role in foreign policy," Ohanyan said, noting that a defeated government cannot accomplish this, however, these are all the crucial directions that need to be executed.

"We must seriously study these exercises and undertake appropriate measures to unify the nation, develop the army, and expand international relations with our strategic partner, especially focusing on our operational combat readiness issues with the joint forces and all strategic plans," emphasized Ohanyan.

Could Russia serve as a deterrent against Azerbaijan and Turkey to prevent provocations?

"Russia has plans regarding ensuring our security in case of an open attack on Armenia, certainly in cooperation with the Armenian armed forces within the joint group. We must engage in serious negotiations with our partner, establish strong foundations for relations, and encourage them to fulfill their obligations. Russia today is engaged in peacekeeping activities in Artsakh, and I believe this is a significant support for the security of the people of Artsakh. They will also address the security issues of the Republic of Armenia alongside this," the former Minister of Defense of Armenia, Seyran Ohanyan, added.