War in the 'Gray Zone' or Donbas Déjà Vu in Artsakh: Wargonzo

The current situation in the Hadrut region can be summarized as follows: Regardless of the outcomes of the next phase of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict (the Russian Ministry of Defense personally announced the resumption of military operations in Artsakh), we have every reason to declare that the Azerbaijani side is behaving much like the Ukrainian (Kyiv) side in Donbas. This means that they interpret the signed ceasefire agreement particularly in the part where the parties are obligated to remain in their occupied positions.

The disregard for the reached agreements, guaranteed personally by Russia and Putin, will lead to an inevitable and larger-scale war. Only the blind cannot see this. Now Baku and Ankara are not so much trying to test the patience of Stepanakert and Yerevan, but rather that of Moscow and the peacekeeping forces. How actively can they respond? How solid are the nerves of Russian generals? How close are Armenian-Russian relations? Can they drive a wedge between them? Where are the weak points?

The Wargonzo project is well acquainted with the methods of warfare in the 'gray zone' and therefore in Donbas. The ongoing slow military actions could easily transform into full-scale clashes. There is a feeling that the process will be even more dynamic in the case of the Turks and Azerbaijanis.