Tigran Abrahamyan: There is a Sharp Increase in Security Threats

Tigran Abrahamyan, the head of the "Henaket" analytical center and former advisor on security issues to the President of Artsakh, has made a post on his Facebook page addressing the military-political situation in the region, the signals coming from Turkey and Azerbaijan, the statements being made, and the underlying causes of the actions being taken. According to him, one of the reasons is that Turkey and Azerbaijan have decided that the only way to resolve the issue of Artsakh is through military means, and their preparations and statements are framed within this logic.

Abrahamyan's post is as follows:

"The military-political situation in our region, the signals coming from Turkey and Azerbaijan, the statements being made, and the actions taken can have two main causes. First, Turkey and Azerbaijan have decided that the only way to resolve the Artsakh issue is through military means, and their preparations and statements align with this reasoning. Second, the developments in Tavush have solidified the deadlock in negotiations and indicate the absence of any resolution, leading to two possible outcomes: a return to the negotiation agenda or the escalation of border provocations or military operations.

If we consider the possibility of resuming negotiations, within this context, Turkey and Azerbaijan are attempting to increase pressure, including through war threats, to achieve concessions that they desire. In short, what is happening around us—specifically in Azerbaijan and Turkey—suggests that either military operations will resume or all of this is aimed at exerting total pressure on Armenia, and in the event of resuming negotiations, extracting concessions.

Even if we assume that Azerbaijan and Turkey are bluffing in an attempt to extract concessions from Armenia, this still does not mean that shortly thereafter, if the necessary concessions are not obtained, the sole purpose of Turkey and Azerbaijan will not become resolving the issue through military means. In any case, it must be noted that there is a sharp increase in security threats, which compels us to implement necessary mechanisms."