Second Wave of Coronavirus in Moscow is No Longer Possible, Says Renowned Virologist

According to official data, 20% of Moscow's population has been infected with antibodies to the coronavirus, which allows us to confidently suggest that 40-60% of the city's residents already have immunity to the infection, said Pavel Volchkov, head of the genomic engineering lab at MIPT, in an exclusive interview with Izvestia. He emphasized that this means there will be no second wave of illness in the capital.

Below are notable excerpts from the interview:

- Pavel Yurievich, how many people in Moscow do you think already have immunity to SARS-CoV-2?

- Recently, Swedish scientists published a paper analyzing T-cell immunity, the results of which I have been personally waiting for. They analyzed a large number of biological samples using an expensive ELISPOT analysis. It turned out that even those who do not have IgG antibodies possess T-cell immunity. There are two to three times more such people in the population than those with antibodies.

- What does this mean?

- If official data indicates that 20% of Moscow residents have recorded a high titer of IgG antibodies, you can safely add another 20-40% to that figure. It turns out that about half of Moscow's residents already have immunity to the virus. They will no longer get sick.

- Can we say that the 'herd' immunity that everyone has been talking about has already formed in Moscow?

- In a city of millions, we currently have 700 new infections. These figures indicate that immunity has formed. If only 20% of the population had immunity, we would see a larger number of infections after restaurants and shops reopened.

- Can we rely on this figure (700 people daily)? What is your forecast?

- I believe this number will begin to decrease and will reach zero by the end of August. Of course, there will be cases of 'imported' infections in the capital from regions that have been slow to 'catch' the coronavirus.

- So, you are saying there won’t be a second wave?

- It is already impossible in Moscow. Currently, the number of people with formed immunity in the capital is 40-60%. If this dynamic continues, the number could increase to 80-90% by the end of August. In those areas of Russia where the virus can still develop, we have a large number of isolated people and extremely low levels of infection.

- But what do you think about the news that the virus is mutating and may not be recognizable?

- In any case, it does not mutate very quickly. Sometimes, it takes several years to become infected with seasonal flu viruses. In that case, it is due to some of its segments, and the flu consists of eight segments, being partially replaced by another flu virus. The coronavirus cannot change that way.