COVID-19 Mortality Rate 100 Times Higher Than Seasonal Flu, Says French Scientist

The number of people infected with the COVID-19 coronavirus has exceeded 80,000 worldwide, with nearly 2,800 resulting in death. In France, as in many other countries, hundreds of scientists are working on developing a vaccine and treatment for coronaviruses. However, it remains difficult to predict how this race against time will end.

What do we know and not know about the coronavirus? Can we refer to the COVID-19 pandemic? And when will scientists find a treatment option for this new disease?

Frederic Tangy, a former scientist at CNRS and currently an employee at the Paris Pasteur Institute's Coronavirus Vaccine Development Laboratory, answered RFI's questions.

- Why is the entire world so afraid of the coronavirus outbreak? Is it due to the high number of fatalities?

- According to the latest figures from China, the current mortality rate stands at 3.3 percent.

- Is that higher than the mortality rate from seasonal influenza?

- Certainly. Nearly a hundred times higher. According to various sources, the mortality rate from the coronavirus is 50 to 100 times higher than that from a typical seasonal flu outbreak.

- But is this less dangerous than the SARS outbreak recorded in 2003?

- It’s definitely difficult to answer. In terms of the number of infections and fatalities, we have long surpassed the scale of the SARS outbreak. However, percentage-wise, the SARS outbreak was more dangerous, with a mortality rate of about 9%, which is three times less than it is now. But three percent is still very high. If the coronavirus were like the common flu, then the current number of patients would be just forty, not 2,700. (According to WHO, as of February 27, there are over 81,000 infected worldwide, with over 2,760 dead.) This means that the mortality rate from coronavirus today exceeds that of the seasonal flu by 60 times.

- Who is considered at risk for the coronavirus? Who suffers the most from it?

- Anyone can become infected with the coronavirus. But, as with any infectious disease, those with weaker health are at greater risk of death. These include either newborns or the elderly, as well as those suffering from diabetes, heart disease, or generally those who already have some serious condition. And while we currently do not have complete data, it is known that the elderly are dying from the coronavirus. As far as I know, no deaths have been recorded in children under 18.

- There is concern regarding the so-called ‘asymptomatic’ carriers of the virus. These are people who do not exhibit any outward signs of the disease but can still infect others with the coronavirus. Is this possible?

- Yes, of course. Like with any infectious disease, people can be carriers of the virus without getting sick, and they can transmit it to others. This is often how viruses spread.

- And how can we protect ourselves from that?

- In such cases, there is nothing that can be done. Other than isolation of cities and travel bans.

- Yes, this is how China managed to reduce the spread of the outbreak, but about 80,000 people are infected, which is a lot. But we can only imagine what would have happened if China had not closed its cities to slow the spread of the infection.

- What are the current treatments for coronaviruses, and how soon can we expect vaccines for coronaviruses to be created?

- A vaccine for the coronavirus will be found, but it is hard to say when that will happen. Many laboratories in different countries are currently working on this. However, there are various technologies involved. I believe that by April or May, the first vaccines might be developed. However, the quality of these vaccines may not necessarily be good, as rapid technology does not allow for that. The program we are working on will not allow the vaccine to be produced earlier than September. And of course, we hope that by then the epidemic will have ended.

Regarding treatment, there are currently no specific drugs for the coronavirus. Symptoms are only being treated now. There have been initial publications on the results of treating with various antiviral agents (for example, those used in the treatment of Ebola or hepatitis C), but so far they are only preliminary data. It is hard to say how they will perform in widespread use.

- How much time is needed to ensure that one of the treatment options works?

- Saying that is just as difficult as outlining a timeline for vaccine preparation. If we act quickly and study the side effects minimally, everything can be quicker. But under normal conditions, such work takes years. This situation is, unfortunately, normal. The virus is completely new and previously unknown. It is impossible to demand medicines from scientists for a virus that emerged two months ago. Developing a new drug takes a lot of time. In the current phase, with two months of virus spread, there is still no ready treatment developed.

- Are you, as a scientist, afraid of this outbreak? Are you more concerned now than, for example, during the SARS outbreak?

- Yes, because the outbreak is developing faster than SARS. Back then, the outbreak point was extinguished pretty quickly. Now the development is out of control. We are now on the brink of a pandemic. If the outbreak spreads across another continent at the same speed and if the same number of cases are discovered there as in Italy, a pandemic will be officially declared. By definition, a pandemic affects more than two continents. Currently, the outbreak has affected Asia and Europe, and since there are not many infected cases in America and Africa, it cannot yet be considered a pandemic. But if we are talking about Eurasia, we can already speak of a pandemic.

- How great is the risk of the virus becoming a pandemic?

- It is very difficult to say. For example, what happened in Italy the previous day surprised everyone. This could happen in Europe, Canada, or elsewhere. It is very surprising that very few cases are registered in Latin America and Africa. (As of February 27, one case of coronavirus has been registered in Latin America: a Brazilian who recently returned from Italy. On the African continent, one case has been registered in Egypt and another in Algeria.) This could be related to climate, but those countries also have seasonal flu outbreaks.

- So this disease is so unknown that nothing can be predicted?

- Yes, that is the case. You made the right conclusion. The world began to think that the development of the outbreak was slowing down in China when suddenly it appeared in different countries around the world. And in China, it was merely a, so to speak, short pause. Now the number of infected has exceeded 80,000. This suggests that the spread of the outbreak continues.

Prepared by Kristina Aghalaryan