What is Azerbaijan Preparing For: Aliyev's New Image

The newspaper "Zhamanak" reports: "The Azerbaijani side has disseminated information about one casualty in the Fizuli direction, stating that this occurred due to fire from the Armenian side. This information gains special significance against the backdrop of relative stability along the border and a lack of casualties for months, as well as the upcoming meeting between Pashinyan and Aliyev in Vienna on March 29.

It is notable that prior to the meeting, the Armenian Ministry of Defense also released information, but not about a casualty or injury, rather regarding the thwarting of an attempt by Azerbaijan to advance their positions through gunfire.

Moreover, the information released by the Armenian Ministry of Defense indicated that it concerned the northeastern border direction, specifically the Tavush region. In particular, it referred to positions near the village of Berdavan and Azerbaijan's attempts to advance and fortify their positions in the neutral zone. Against this background, Baku is disseminating information about a casualty. It would not be surprising if this information is fabricated; in other words, the result of non-regulatory relations within the Azerbaijani army is presented as a victim of Armenian fire.

Additionally, Azerbaijan may try to resolve several issues with this narrative: on one hand, it shifts the responsibility for the death of its soldier away from itself, and on the other hand, it seeks to depict the Armenian side as the violator of the Dushanbe agreements ahead of the Vienna meeting, thereby relinquishing responsibility for its own attempts at position advancement in the Tavush direction.

It is beyond doubt that we are witnessing at least an information positional struggle ahead of the Vienna meeting. The question is what issue Azerbaijan's strategy aims to resolve: is it a short-term atmosphere issue ahead of Vienna, or a longer-term calculation, so to speak, to take 'legitimate' actions leading to border tensions?

In any case, Yerevan and Stepanakert must be ready not only on the diplomatic front but literally at the border to prevent any potential Azerbaijani provocations. On the other hand, it is striking that it is the Azerbaijani side that reports losses ahead of high-level Armenian-Azerbaijani meetings, whereas it had become a sad 'tradition' that the Armenian side would suffer casualties before or after meetings between Sargsyan and Aliyev, in line with Baku's military diplomacy logic. Ahead of Vienna, Baku is attempting to present itself through the image of a 'victim.'

One must be extremely attentive to this game; on the other hand, it undoubtedly reflects a change in the overall logic of the situation, as the possibilities for military diplomacy or blackmail are quite limited, and Baku is searching for exits while adopting the 'victim' persona. One of the objectives of the Armenian strategy should be to remain vigilant and prepared to prevent any latent provocations and not allow them while also keeping Azerbaijan in that image, as that is the guarantee for maintaining regional peace and stability."

For more details, see today's edition of the newspaper.